Κυριακή 3 Μαρτίου 2013

Poker Traps - Avoiding Costly Mistakes

Trapping yourself in poker


Ask any skilled poker player on Party Poker what they think of the players on the site and they'll all respond with the same answer: "terrible!". This is mainly because the players at Party Poker are all new to the game and most are just starting out. But what makes new players so much worse than the 'good' players if poker really is just a mental game as so many claim?
In short, the biggest answer is starting hand selection.
People tend to love poker because anyone can win at the game. What this really means however, is that anyone can be dealt a winning hand. Since it takes no skill to win when you've got a winning hand, even the village idiot can win when the cards are coming. But what happens when the cards aren't coming? The ability to play (or better, not play)bad cards is what separates the men from the boys in poker. It's a lot like the saying goes, that a person's true character is only revealed in hard times, since anyone can act grand during the good times.

Ok, I'll play good cards - but how does this avoid traps?

Ah, good question. If you look at the image at the top of this page, you can see the top right image is a screen shot taken from thepoker hands page. What this is meant to convey is that many hands that look like they may be profitable, are in fact, not profitable at all.
The reason I illustrated hands like Kx suited, is because this is a very good example of a poker hand that traps itself. For example, suppose this hand plays out:
You hold:Flop:
Now the question is: how are you going to play this flop? If you're too smart for your own good on Party Poker, you'll try to play this hand very aggressively. This hand has two things going for it: it's on the second best nut flush draw and it's also got top pair. This hand also has two things not going for it: it's on the second best nut flush draw and it's got top pair with a weak kicker. There's also the added bonus that if a Queen or Jack drops, it will quite possibly complete someone else's straight.
What happens with a hand like this is that many new players will be dragged into over calling this hand when action starts to develop on the table. They'll take one look at the two spades on the flop and decide that they want a piece of this. Now, before any skilled players get into a huffy, I'm not saying that this hand is not unplayable - but it is certainly a check and call hand in any full game. In a short game or heads up, this may well be a hand to go raising with. In a full game, this hand is already half a rope to hang yourself with. Here's an idea of why to get out of this hand if action starts up:
Player 1:Player 2:Player 3:
We see that these are all legitimate hands to be ducking it out with on the flop. Player 1 has the nut flush draw and a nut inside straight draw. Player 2 has the made nut straight and has the draw to the best straight. Player 3 has two pair and has the draw to a full house.
The point that I am trying to make here is not to keep thinking that your opponents have monsters, but to show that many times, your hand is already deader than dead and really has no outs. This is known as a 'dominated' hand. By holding K5s here, you might be tempted to call because you made top pair, but you'll often find yourself out kicked and pay for it all the way to the river. In other cases, having your flush draw beaten by a higher flush draw is a rare occurrence, but when it does happen, you will definitely pay for it.

Avoid playing big cards with small kickers (A5, K9, Q8, etc)

"Texas hold'em is a game of top pair, top kicker". I think these are the words of T.J. Cloutier, one of the best and most winning poker players of all time. Most of what texas hold'em comes down to is holding big pair and being able to stand up against the other kickers on the table. Of course, you want to be in the position of taking the pot in at showdown, so don't be straggling in pots that you have no business being in.

In the big blind and small blind, learn to fold after the flop

If you look at the poker hands page, with the EV stats of each hand, you'll notice that players in the big blind and small blind don't fare very well. Players in this position suffer from the same syndrome of being dragged into a pot that they had no business being in. If you had A5 for example and you hit top pair on the flop with 4 more players to act and the person after you bets, it's practically a no-brainer to fold this hand. Most tight players play AT or better, so if any tight player is in the game with that Ace showing on board and there is no straight or flush possibilities out, you should automatically know you are beat.

Premium hands - one of the hardest poker traps to avoid

Another aspect of a great poker player is their ability to lay down a strong hand when faced with a decision. Most poor players and even many average players will refuse to lay down a strong hand even when all the signals are going off. If you're playing a no limit game especially and someone comes in for an enormous raise when you've made top pair, top kicker, many times it's worth dropping. Don't let a good hand blind you from the possibilities of two pair or a set. When a flush or straight possibility is on the table, never completely discount someone for not having it either.

KJ, KT, QT, JT - Getting out of harms way in EP (early position)

This may be one of the biggest traps for players who don't understand position in texas hold'em. Most players assume that any two face cards are worthwhile to play, which is generally true. However, as the games become higher limit or as you play with more skilled opponents, the games will tighten up considerably as players only play premium hands. In this scenario, you're in a difficult spot if catch the flop with your hand. Here is an example:
You hold:Flop:


Tight Player 1:Tight Player 2:Tight Player 3:
This example is another perfect illustration of getting out-kicked and being trapped in a hopeless draw. In this situation, you can see that not only are we out kicked with the Ten kicker here by Player 2's Ace, but that we have no draws for an out. If a Ten falls and gives us two-pair, it completes the straight for Player 1 if they decide to stay in on an over cards draw.
The best way to play situations like these are to usually be a bit tricky and do some check-raising, fast play or fold. It's almost always incorrect to simply limp with a hand like this, because you don't stand much chance of winning this hand after the flop if people are calling you down.

Ace Queen - A quick way out the door

Dropping a hand like AJ is easy enough when faced with action, but dropping AQ will break many a precious heart. However, doing so can save your bank roll in many a situation. This advice is geared more toward the higher limits or rational games (not low-limit Party Poker games) where raises from players are usually a strong indicator of strength.
Many uptight players will only raise with three hands: AA and KK (to increase pot value) and AK (to narrow the field). These are first-tier pre-flop raising hands. I would say second-tier pre-flop raising hands would be: QQ, JJ, TT and AQs. The majority of uncreative tight players lie in the first-tier. Tight players who are more experienced usually often raise tier-two hands as well. Many top players will raise with all sorts of hands, but usually as a ruse to be tricky or due to the high-limit nature of the games they play.
Given these first and second tier hands, let's stack up how well AQ matches up against them:
    Tier-1 Hands
  • AA vs AQ:  92% to 8%
  • KK vs AQ:  72% to 29%
  • AK vs AQ:  72% to 24%


  • Tier-2 Hands
  • QQ vs AQ:  70% to 30%
  • JJ vs AQ:  58% to 43%
  • TT vs AQ:  58% to 43%
  • AQs vs AQ: 57% to 43%
  • AQ vs AQ:  50% to 50%


  • All low pockets
  • 22 - 99 vs AQ: 53% vs 45% (approx)
As you can see, at best AQ is a 50/50 favorite when it's up against itself! This means that should you decide to defend AQ and you're up against a tight player, you're chances of survival are at best a coin toss and at worst a massive beating. So, be ready to fold AQ when you need to. This also applies to hands like AJ, AT and the rest of course as stated previously. Against a pre-flop raise by a loose or aggressive player, it's OK to usually call provided there's not too many behind you to act - which is a whole other trap itself.

JJ and TT - Get ready for a rough ride

Jacks
I don't have enough bad things to say about people who play pocket pairs as if they were guaranteed winners. While pocket Jacks and pocket Tens are both decent hands as far as pocket pairs go, they are still a pair of Jacks or pair of Tens however you look at it. Mid and low pocket pairs only work well when they are heads up or if the flop comes nothing bug rags. When you are heads up, you can play the game knowing that you've already paired up, even if over cards fall on the table. With some trickery, you can even get a player who has a high pair to fold at times too. In a full game, never count on this though, ever.
My personal preference is almost never to raise JJ or TT unless there are few limpers and I'm in late or early position where I can focus on keeping people out. If you're going to get 4 callers in a pot with you,JJ and TT quickly become worthless if an over card falls. If you get action back when an over card falls, you should routinely fold these pockets. Some tricky players will check-raise you if you show aggression from pre-flop to the flop, but if you're up against unsophisticated players, you're surely beat.

The board both giveth and taketh

These tips will be easily recognized by any seasoned player and you really won't commit it to memory until you've been seriously burned by it, but I'll try to convince you to keep it in mind anyways if you haven't been already.

When the board pairs, a full-house (or quads) is the best hand, not the Ace flush

A classic beginner's mistake is having the Ace high flush and going toe to toe with some 'fool' betting what could only be the King high flush on a paired board. Of course when he flips over a full house, our beginner is absolutely devastated. So, while this doesn't mean you need to slam on the brakes every time the board pairs and you have the Ace high flush, you do need to realize that if it's getting real heated, the full-house should be a possibility in your mind.

When the board pairs, your two-pair may now be worthless

Another classic mistake is not realizing when the board has rendered your two pair useless. Here is the example:
You hold:Flop:Turn:River:


Player 1:Player 2:
In this situation, you're in the big blind with 32 and flopped two pair. You bet the flop and both players call, with decent reason. You bet the turn and both players call again. You bet the river and find that you're suddenly met with a raise from Player 2. What gives?
What gives is that when the board paired here, it also gave everyone else a two pair. Player 1 now has Tens and Eights and Player 2 now has Queens and Eights. You, unfortunately are stuck with Eights and Threes - from the best hand to the worst hand in the span of the river card. So, whenever you see this scenario come up, get ready to jump out of the way if you suddenly find your hand no good. That's poker.

Drawing hands - Sometimes a trap waiting to happen

Many new players who are attempting to study the game have a general understanding of pot odds and what type of hands to draw on. However, many times, I'll see players go on horrendous draws when they think they are getting correct pot odds when they really aren't. This makes their draws substantially worse and a loser in the long run. So pay attention here folks.

Flush / straight draws - Drawing on the flop vs the turn

In a no limit or pot limit game, you can make a serious mistake by drawing to a flush or open ended straight (for breadth, anytime I refer to flush draw, I am referring to the open-ended straight as well). If the pot is at $200 and the BB comes out swinging with a pot sized bet of $200, at this particular moment, you are getting 2:1 pot odds if you call this pot. Many players will assume they are on a 2:1 draw here to hit their flush by the river, so they'll call. This is an incorrect assumption to make.
In reality, you are on a 2:1 draw to make it by the river, but if you don't hit your flush on the turn, you are a 4:1 underdog to hit your flush on the river. This means in the example, if there is now$600 in the pot on the turn and the BB comes swinging with another pot sized $600 bet, you're still getting 2:1 pot odds, but your drawing odds are 4:1. This means you should definitely fold here and should have folded on the flop as well!
Odds of drawing to a flush
Flop to River (2 to 1)
Flop to Turn (4 to 1)
Turn to River (4 to 1)
FlopTurnRiver
The key point to remember is that your 2:1 flush draw is your odds of hitting your flush on the river. Thus, if you aren't going to see the river card, then this draw is no longer worth a 2:1 draw - it's now a 4:1 draw if you are only going to see a turn card. The reason you would only see a turn card, is because if you know your opponent is going to make a pot-sized bet on the turn, there's no way you want to be calling with 2:1 pot odds on a 4:1 drawing hand.
In summary, go on flush draws in no-limit or pot-limit only if you know your opponents will not be making substantial bets on the turn that make your pot odds incorrect to draw on. Most players have no clue how to properly play no limit and pot limit, so they tend not to do this, but you've been warned.

Drawing two overcards with an Ace

Another trap waiting to happen in many cases is drawing overcards with an Ace. I will state flat out that I am never a big fan of drawing solely to hit overcards. A two overcard draw is when you have two cards greater than the board and are looking to pair either one, but otherwise have no other outs. This gives you 6 total outs, for a 3.2:1 draw. A common two overcard you'll routinely see are players calling AK to the river after the flop has completely missed, stick in for this overcard draw as they hate to see their AK go to waste.
The reason I'm not a big fan of these cards is that often, I don't regard those 6 outs as a nut draw at all. The thing to realize is that many people like to play Ace / anything, which can get you into serious trouble if you have Ace / High card, if that person has already paired. This means you are practically drawing dead, as you have 3 outs to hit your 'lesser' overcard. Hitting your Ace is futile, since it gives your opponent two pair and is bound to make you call and lose even more money. This is illustrated below:
You hold:Flop:Turn:River:


Big Blind:Tight Player:Loose Player:
The purpose of the example above is for you to start recognizing what possible traps lay for you in drawing with two overcards. By hitting your Ace on the turn, you will square off against the BB who will have managed to make two pair at the same time. If you manage to hit your Jack however, you'll find that you'll be up against the tight player with JT, who will also have made his two pair. And in an even worse turn of events, a loose player with 97o will have made their straight when a Jack falls on thetable. In the scenario, you really are drawing dead.
When drawing with overcards, keep in mind that your "6 overcard outs" are a best-case scenario. This means don't always go happily drawing just because you have a 3.2:1 pot odds in the pot. Because of the Ace factor, sometimes it's even better to draw with overcards like KQ. You've got the same odds of hitting your overcards and in my personal opinion, less chance of duking it out with another person hitting two pair. The thing you end up having to worry about with KQ of course is someone holding AK or AQ, but usually you can get a hint of these holdings if your opponents do some pre-flop raising.
The other thing to watch for are other flop situations like straight and flush draws on the board. These both hurt your chances of overcards, since they can complete someone else's hand, so if you must draw, draw in optimal condition with rags, rainbow and non-connected cards as possible.

Getting your money in over your head

Have you been holding a mediocre or strong hand (but not a monster) and been betting into a pot or just made a large bet into a pot, only to have your opponent come raising back? We all have. This is one of those moments that make your stomach churn and your head begin to hurt. However, learning whether or not to drop those cards is one of the most difficult, but beneficial things to learn. Fooling yourself into the 'pot committed' notion is one of the biggest poker mind traps in my opinion

There is no such thing as pot committed if you know you're going to lose

The idea of calling down a pot when you know you're beat is amazing to me. If you stand the chance of getting knocked out a tournament and are still in a good enough position to not get blinded out in the new few hands, you need to fold hands when you think you are beat, regardless of how many chips you've already put in the pot. The only thing that pot committed means is the pot odds of your draw vs the amount in the pot.
You hold:Flop:Turn:River:


Player 1:AK paired vs AQ unpaired
(Flop to River)
AK paired vs AQ unpaired
(Turn to River)
Percent Odds: 87% vs 12%
Drawing Odds: 7:1
Percent Odds: 93% vs 7%
Drawing Odds: 14:1
As you can see in this example, AQ does not have good drawing outs at all. In order to be 'pot committed', you would need to be getting pot odds of at least 7:1 on the flop in order to even simply break even in the long haul. However, you have to remember that you're going to lose this break-even draw 7 out of every 8 times - so you really have to ask yourself if it's worth this horrid call when you know you're beat. When you're know you're beat, it's time to suck it up and fold.
Before I end this point on pot commitment however, I must add that if you do have doubts and you are getting true pot odds, it's reasonable to call. That said, don't ever be that guy who says "I was committed" when you really weren't. It's just an excuse for making bad calls.

Overbetting your hands

One way to keep out of thost pot committed situations is to not pot commit yourself in the first place. Of course, sometimes you just can't avoid situations, but other times you'll probably be given some warning signs that can help you out from stepping into a trap.

Over-aggressive pre-flop betting in a NL or PL game

The standard self trap is overbetting in a NL or PL game. The blinds are 15/30 and you've gone gung-ho with those notoriously difficult pocket Jacks and have bet 400 into the pot when there's only 50 in the pot to start out with. A tight player has moved all-in and you got 300 more chips to call. If you call, you're almost certainly dead, but if you fold, your stack will be severely cut.
A much more reasonable bet is to bet the current pot amount or if there are few players, 3x the BB amount. Example: If you're UTG and the blinds are 15/30, bet 90 up front. If you're late in the game and the blinds are very big, you can even bet 2x - 2.5x the blind and have the same effect.

Betting on the river

Bets on the river are unique in that they're generally value bets instead of field narrowing bets (aka "bluffing" by the time you're on the river). What this means then, is you should only bet the river when you feel like you have the best hand in the game. How you know if you have the best hand? That's a damn good question - and if anyone can tell me how to consistently know, give me a holler :) Of course, I'm half joking here. Most of the time, based on the type of player calling you down, you should have a general idea of what you're up against. A tight player calling you down is a sign of worry if there are no apparent draws on the table, because it means they most likely hold top pair also. When a loose player has called you down, chances are he has a weak hand, but don't simply assume that's the case!
When in doubt, a check on the river is always a safe play if you are last to act. Many times, your opponents will be holding busted draws on the river, so you won't be able to extract value from opponents who were going to fold anyways. Against tough opponents, as mentioned above, you're likely going to face off against a strong hand (which will likely have been contested on the flop) so a check can be a safe play.
I should add that against tricky opponents, sometimes a check can actually backfire against you when your check induces another player to try to bluff you. If you are willing to call someone's bet on the river, you may as well bet the amount you would be willing to call and put them to the decision instead against certain opponents.

Bluffing the perpetual calling station

Ah, the cardinal sin. "How the hell did he call my steal with 72 offsuit?!?" is the reaction when you face up against the calling station from hell. I'm guilty of this mistake numerous times myself unfortunately. Profiling players is one of the main themes of this site and knowing when to bluff is a direct off-shoot of identifying your opponents. Too often I'll see an otherwise good player try to make an all-in move against a calling station, only to see the calling station stay in with the lowest pair on the board and end up winning.
Now, the common player who thinks they know a lot about poker will react with disgust and wonder how the hell their opponent could even call them on a raise like this. What they won't realize is that they were the ones making the mistake by trying to bluff someone who they knew was a habitual caller.
Some people just don't fold even when the train is coming, so against these people, make sure you really do have a train, ok?

Mental Poker Traps

Poker is mental game at the heart of it all, so it's no wonder that your mental game is also going to be thrown through a few hoops during your sessions.

Not respecting your opponent - a bad mistake to make

First let me get things clear - it's one thing to consider another person a weak or bad player, but it's another thing to not respect their play. If you bet top pair and have a weak player call you with two spades on the table, you'll react differently depending on your mindset. If you respect your opponent, your reaction may be something like:
"I know he's weak, so he could have any pair, any kicker with a good chance of a flush."
Or your reaction if you don't respect him could be:
"Man, this guy is a total fish, I've bet big with top pair, just fold already.."
The key difference between these two mentalities is that in the first one, you're thinking logically about what kind of hand your weak opponent may be holding and why is he calling. In the second, you're just ticked that he's on yet another hopeless draw and want to bet him out of the pot. This isn't tilt in the context of raging and throwing your chair across the room, but you're thinking with your ego instead of your brain and it'll cost you when you fail to pick up on that completed backdoor straight or other dubious draws.

Trying to save a pot with over aggression

Sometimes I wonder if Rounders has anything to do with this, when Matt Damon made the remark about outplaying Johnny Chan "just this one hand". That or maybe Mike Sexton who always comments on the World Poker Tour that "the only way to win this pot now is to bluff at it!".
You know what I'm talking about... You have AK and raised the pot $500 pre-flop. You've got two callers and you're UTG. The flop misses you completely but you know you're carrying that tight table image with you. You want to make sure you scare them out by representing AA so you bet a hefty $1,000 more into the pot. First player drops immediately but the second person calls. "Oh sh*t!" you scream mentally, as you wonder what kind of hand this fool is holding. The turn comes yet another rag and you've already got $1,500 or half your stack in the pot. Thinking frantically, you realize you've invested too much money to let this pot go down. You must outplay your opponent now and the only way to do it is with a huge $2,000 bluff. You move all your chips in with your unpaired AK and hold your breath. After a tense second, you groan as your opponent flips over QQ and knocks you out.
That, was an example of over aggression. Sometimes you need to know when you're beat - not at showdown, but on the turn or river. It really sucks, but when you know you can no longer salvage the pot, you might as well check and fold it down. Yes, it will feel like a huge blow to the ego when you've dumped a ton of money into the pot, led the way pre-flop, then the flop.. and meekly fold when you check the turn and have your opponent gleefully come at you. As much as it's a blow to the ego, any money you save is money that can go toward your continuation in the tournament or for your bankroll.
Again, yet another disclaimer that this isn't about not bluffing your opponent. Bluffing is good and a required part of the game. Trying to take down a pot by force when your opponent has a hand is suicide however.

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